Tomorrow the National Baseball Hall of Fame will announce voting results for the 2024 Class of inductees. There are 26 players on this year’s ballot.

At the time of this post, early returns at 2024 BBHOF Tracker indicate that Adrián Beltré is a lock to get in, as he should be. Others who seem on the verge of enshrinement are Todd Helton, Joe Mauer, and Billy Wagner. Gary Sheffield, in his 10th and final year on the ballot, is on the bubble with 75% of the vote, which is the total needed for enshrinement. Andruw Jones remains within striking distance at 70.5%, but he needs to get nearly 80% of the remaining votes to make up the difference, which isn’t likely.

Sheffield hit 509 home runs, drove in 1,676 runs, and has a .292 batting average to go along with a .393 on-base percentage. Those numbers should have made Sheffield a bona fide first-ballot inductee and are significantly better than many players already in the Hall of Fame.

Unfortunately for Sheffield, his name is linked to the performance-enhancing drugs scandal. In his December 17, 2023, column in USA Today Bob Nightengale makes a compelling argument for why writers should treat Sheffield differently than they have other PED users. According to Nightengale, Sheffield’s only real tie to PEDs was the short period of time he worked out with Barry Bonds, which caused his name to show up in the Mitchell Report.

Nightengale may be onto something. By voting Sheffield in, the writers can show they are willing to draw some distinctions among players who inflated their stats with PEDs and consider them on a case-by-case basis, something they seemingly have been reluctant to do in the past.

Jones was a feared slugger, but his career batting average is only .254. He also won 10 Gold Gloves and many people consider him to be, if not the greatest center fielder in the history of the game, at least the second greatest after Willie Mays. I believe Andruw Jones is Ozzie Smith and Bill Mazeroski but with 434 career home runs, so he should be in the Hall of Fame.

In addition to Jones, it looks as if seven other players will get the five percent of the vote needed to remain on the ballot for next year. Those players are Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Andy Pettitte, Manny Ramîrez, Álex Rodríguez, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley.

Five other players–Mark Buehrle, Torii Hunter, Francisco Rodríguez, Omar Vizquel, and David Wright–are on the bubble for remaining on the ballot.

That leaves eight players who likely will drop off the ballot–José Bautista, Bartolo Colón, Adrián González, Matt Holliday, Victor Martínez, Brandon Phillips, José Reyes, and James Shields.

I’m puzzled by the strong support for Utley, considering that Jeff Kent isn’t in the Hall of Fame. Kent hit 118 more homers than Utley, drove in 493 more runs, had 576 more hits, and his career batting average (.290) is 15 points higher. Utley’s career WAR (wins above replacement) is 10 points higher (64.5), but I maintain anyone who uses career WAR as a comparison has a misunderstanding of the concept of WAR.

Maybe Utley belongs in the Hall of Fame; but I believe putting him in would further emphasize the injustice that has been done to Kent. Perhaps the Veterans Committee will take care of Kent like they finally did for Fred McGriff and Ted Simmons.

And for what it’s worth, if I had a vote, my ballot would include Beltrán, Beltré, Helton, Jones, Mauer, Sheffield, and Wagner.

(All statistics are from Baseball Reference. Access to 2024 BBHOF Tracker is through Ryan Thibodaux, whom you can follow at @NotMrTibbs; thanks to my pal Lamar Bradley for sending me the link.)