Hugh Atkins

I have invented a baseball statistic of my own. I call it Total Bases per Plate Appearance (TBPA). It is my alternative to Wins Above Replacement (WAR), but unlike WAR, my stat is based entirely on quantifiable data and has a set formula for its calculation.

I first add a player’s total bases, bases on balls, hit by pitches, stolen bases, and times he reached base via error (ROE). Then I add the number of times the player was caught stealing to the number of times he hit into a double play; I subtract that total from my first result. Finally, I divide that result by the player’s plate appearances.

2024 ML OPS Leaders

My stat combines the elements of on-base percentage and slugging percentage, which makes it an alternative to on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). I think it produces a more accurate representation of actual OPS than merely adding the two percentages together.

TBPA gives a player credit for a total base for each base he steals while also taking away a base for every time he is caught stealing. This benefits players with a higher stolen base success rate.

I include the times a player reached via error for a couple of reasons. First of all, it represents a base (or bases) a player achieved. Second, it’s a way to stick it to the players who strike out so much. After all, the more a player puts the ball in play, the more likely he is to reach base.

2024 ML OPS Leaders by TBPA

I’ve included a table showing the 2024 major league leaders in OPS and another table showing how those players rank in TBPA. Shohei Ohtani was second to Aaron Judge in OPS, but Ohtani had a higher TBPA. Ohtani stole 59 bases while being caught only four times. Judge was a perfect 10 for 10 in stolen base attempts, but Ohtani netted a whopping 55 bases for his total. Judge also grounded into 22 double plays compared to Ohtani who grounded into seven.

I also included a table showing the 2024 ML Leaders in WAR (batters only). I find it odd that Matt Chapman made the list, apparently due to his defensive prowess. But Ohtani, Marcell Ozuna, and Brent Rooker were full-time designated hitters; therefore, it doesn’t appear that a total lack of contribution on defense hurts a player’s WAR very much.

2024 Leaders – WAR

I think TBPA stacks up well as a measure of a player’s production while also being a stat that anyone can compute.

Here are some random notes on my pursuit of TBPA:

  • I was surprised that both Retrosheet and Baseball Reference include ROE in their stats.
  • Retrosheet includes catcher’s interference in their ROE total, as well as the times a batter reaches base on a fielder’s choice when no error is committed, so I use their number in my formula.
  • I scoured daily accounts of the OPS leaders to determine whether any of the times they reached on an error resulted in more than one base; several players got an extra base as a result.
  • I’ve always felt that a batter who reaches base after the defense unsuccessfully attempts a fielder’s choice should get credit for a hit. At least with my formula, he gets credit for a base.
  • I never have embraced the concept of defensive indifference. If a player steals a base, then he should get credit for it no matter when it occurs. Batters get credit for stats against position players when they pitch, which is the ultimate in defensive indifference.

With consecutive posts mentioning the evils of WAR, I now can let that subject go. Or maybe not.

(All statistics are from Retrosheet and Baseball Reference.)

2 responses to “((TB+BB+HBP+SB+ROE) – (CS+GIDP))/PA”

  1. Gary Trujillo Avatar

    I would be curious as to what Bill James thought about this stat. You should email him, Hugh. Personally, I’ve got no problems with it. Very interesting.

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    1.  Avatar
      Anonymous

      Thanks, Gary. After I posted, I thought I also should have subtracted the number of times a player got picked off, although that data point is difficult to find. Ronald Acuña once went through a stretch where it seemed like he was getting picked off every night; that should work against him. I figure MLB or at least some in the media would like my new stat since it provides a way to make Ohtani look even better. If I can find Bill’s email address, I’ll try to make contact.

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