Hugh Atkins

I find myself increasingly frustrated by wins above replacement, the newfangled baseball statistic commonly known as WAR. Commentators toss around WAR as if it is the definitive measure of a player’s production. Baseball Reference puts WAR in the first column of each player’s stats on their website. But unlike traditional stats such as batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, WAR is a concept based largely on subjective criteria masquerading as data.

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The definition of WAR doesn’t clarify much for me. According to MLB.com, “WAR measures a player’s value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he’s worth than a replacement-level player at his same position (e.g., a Minor League replacement or a readily available fill-in free agent).”

MLB.com goes on to define the formula for determining a player’s WAR, but that formula is full of abstract concepts like an adjustment for league and the number of runs provided by a replacement-level player. Who are these mythical replacement players and how does one determine how many runs they would provide?

I understand that we shouldn’t use any one statistic as a definitive measure of who is most valuable to a team or league. Batting average tells part of the story, on-base percentage tells us a little more, and adding those two stats together (on-base plus slugging percentage or OPS) gives us still another metric. What I like about these stats is that, unlike WAR, you apply actual data to an established mathematical formula to produce the final result.

I concede that WAR is another beneficial data point for determining a player’s value; however, given its definition it is absurd to use WAR when comparing players at different positions. MLB.com seems to make this same point by saying, “For example, if a shortstop and a first baseman offer the same overall production (on offense, defense and the basepaths), the shortstop will have a better WAR because his position sees a lower level of production from replacement-level players.”

I never gave much thought to WAR until I noticed a line of photos labeled “Top 12 Players” at the top of Baseball Reference’s page for the 1966 Pittsburgh Pirates. Roberto Clemente is in the first position, and no thinking person would argue with that. However, numbers 2-6 are Gene Alley, Willie Stargell, Bob Veale, Donn Clendenon, and Matty Alou.

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Using WAR, we are to believe that Alley was more valuable to the Pirates in 1966 than were Stargell, Veale, Clendenon, and Alou. Alley had a great year in ‘66; he hit .299 with seven home runs, 43 runs batted in, 28 doubles, and 10 triples. Alley’s WAR was 5.3 compared to Stargell’s 4.8, but that doesn’t convince me that Alley was more valuable to the Bucs than was Stargell, who hit .315 with 33 homers and 102 RBIs; the same goes for Clendenon and Alou. (I left out Veale because it is especially absurd to use WAR to compare pitchers and position players.)

Defense also figures into WAR, but other than fielding percentage, it always has been difficult to put a number value on defense; therefore, any defensive measures factored into WAR only increase the subjective nature of the final metric.

Part of my love of baseball comes from real numbers. I love it that when Henry Aaron got 164 hits in 547 at-bats, and Barry Bonnell got 108 hits in 360 at-bats, and Mike McQueen got six hits in 20 at-bats, they all were .300 hitters.

I’m all for new metrics. I just want them to be based on real data and then applied appropriately when comparing players.

(All statistics are from Baseball Reference.)

9 responses to “WAR Games”

  1. Steve Myers Avatar

    Barry Bonnell! I haven’t thought about him in a while! I find myself referring to WAR numbers in a baseball discussion and I really don’t understand how it’s computed. Your post is a kick in my behind to better understand what’s become the new batting average. I remember last season wondering how in the hell did Daulton Varsho (Blue Jays) have such a high WAR. I guess it was because of his defense, but it still makes no sense how his WAR is so high. I’m using him as my lab experiment to figure out more about WAR. Great post Hugh. Thought provoking.

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  2. cheaphill44 Avatar

    Thanks, Steve. Yeah, my Bonnell reference was kind of random. I wanted three Atlanta Braves that hit .300 on the nose, one in a full season, one in about half a season (Bonnell), and one with a only a few ABs. I started following baseball when I was in second grade and didn’t understand why a guy like Rico Carty had a higher batting average than Henry Aaron since Aaron seemed to be a much more dominant hitter. My older brother explained batting average to me, and I had it. I would feel better about WAR if there was a way for fans to actually compute it or if commentators used it more appropriately.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Gary Trujillo Avatar

    Bill James, the creator of the WAR statistic, says that it’s “problematic” and not a good measure of a player’s worth. Personally, I think OPS is superior, and it’s always the very first thing I look at to gauge a player.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. cheaphill44 Avatar

    I go straight to OPS as well.

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  5.  Avatar
    Anonymous

    I feel the same way about WAR as Arthur Clarke felt about IQ. In 1992, Clarke stated, “IQ is at best a very rough guide, and at worst, an absolute sham.” That’s exactly how I feel about WAR, and for the same general reason: It’s an attempt to quantify something that’s not mathematically quantifiable.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. cheaphill44 Avatar

      I’m not familiar with Clarke, but his quote is most appropriate with WAR. Your last statement summed up my 600-word post very succinctly. Thanks.

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  6. ((TB+BB+HBP+SB+ROE) – (CS+GIDP))/PA – Cheap Hill 44 Avatar

    […] consecutive posts mentioning the evils of WAR, I now can let that subject go. Or maybe […]

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  7. wkkortas Avatar

    Alley was a hell of a good defensive shortstop, and those offensive numbers in the context of ’66 ain’t bad at all. If Gene hadn’t hurt his arm, he’d be a Hall of Very Good first-ballot guy.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. cheaphill44 Avatar

    Alley certainly had a career year in ’66 (his only decent offensive year, actually). He was a good defensive shortstop and deservedly had the highest WAR among NL shortstops that year.

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